Population projections

Population projections provide estimates of potential future population size and structure based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration from a base year where population totals and trends are known. The latest local projections are 2018-based and provide projections for each year to 2043. These suggest that, in the North East LEP area:

• The population is projected to increase by just over 54,000 between 2018 and 2028
• however, in that decade, the working-age (16 to 64) population is projected to decrease by over 10,000
• in the following 15 years, the population is projected to increase by a further 45,000 with the number of 16 to 64 year olds falling by 11,000
• the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to grow by 76,000 in the ten years to 2028 and by 133,000 between 2018 and 2043
• between 2018 and 2028 there are large population decreases projected among those aged under 16 and 50 to 64 (by 12,000 and 25,000)
• the population aged 16 to 24 is projected to grow by 14,000 in the ten year period with the 25 to 49 population almost unchanged

Among the seven North East LEP area local authorities:

• County Durham's population is projected to experience the largest increase from 2018; by 20,000 to 2028 and by 35,000 to 2043
• Sunderland's population is the only one projected to decrease, although only slightly;  by less than 1,000 to 2028 and by 2,000 to 2043
• in percentage terms, the projected increase is highest in North Tyneside; by 5.2 per cent to 2028 and by 10.1 per cent to 2043
• these projected increases are slightly higher than for England excluding London (5.0 and 10.0 per cent, respectively)
• the projected percentage increases in the North East LEP area are much lower than nationally; 2.7 per cent to 2028 and 5.0 per cent to 2043