The estimated mid-2022 population of the North East LEP area was 1.994 million
More than one in four of the North East population (26.5%) lived in County Durham
more detail about the breakdown of the North East population by age and location is available on the hub's population estimates page.
Since 1992
The North East population decreased in most years between 1992 and 2004, resulting in a total fall of almost 47,000 over that period
it increased in most years between 2004 and 2022, leading to total growth over that period of 106,000
the population increase in the latest year was by far the largest for any of the last 30 years
it was two and half times higher than the next largest annual increase during this period.
Comparisons with national trends
The annual change in the North East population was negative in 10 of the most recent 30 years
in England excluding London, in contrast, the population increased in each of these years
in percentage terms, the population increase in England excluding London was higher than that in the North East i all but the latest year
between mid-2021 and mid-2022, the North East population increased by almost 1.3%, compared toan increase of just over 1.0% in England excluding London
in both cases, this was the highest annual percentage change of the past 30 years.
Population by age group and local authority area, North East
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. Geography: North East local authority areas
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. Geography: North East LEP area
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023. Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. Geography: North East LEP area
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023. Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. Geography: North East local authority areas.
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023.
Percentage change calculations: North East LEP Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. Geography: Core city areas, North East local authority areas. The core city areas contain the largest English conurbations outside of London. D2N2 is the LEP covering Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. Tees Valley and London are included for comparisons.
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. Geography: North East LEP area
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023.
North East LEP analysis of change Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. Geography: North East local authority areas,
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023
Analysis of percentage change: North east LEP Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. Geography: Core city areas, North East local authority areas. The core city areas contain the largest English conurbations outside of London. D2N2 is the LEP covering Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. Tees Valley and London are included for comparisons.
Source: Population estimates - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023.
Analysis of percentage change: North East LEP Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. Geography: Core city areas, North East local authority areas. The core city areas contain the largest English conurbations outside of London. D2N2 is the LEP covering Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. Tees Valley and London are included for comparisons.
Total change in population within an area is mainly the result of the combination of natural change and net migration
the former is the balance of the numbers of births and deaths
the latter is a result of a combination of in-migration and out-migration
this includes internal migration, from and to other parts of the UK, as well as international migration.
Recent year on year changes
The latest set of year on year patterns of North East population change by component highlight that:
there was a large increase in net international migration in the latest year
net internal migration (from elsewhere in the UK) had been positive and fairly consistent in the latest six years
prior to that period, it had been much smaller or negative
natural change had been negative in each of the latest six years, with more deaths than births
deaths in the most recent three years were about 9% higher than in the preceding three years
the number of births had declined in recent years
international in-migration had been higher than international out-migration in each of the latest ten years
the gap was, by far, highest in the latest year.
The latest decade
Between mid-2012 and mid-2022, within the North East:
Newcastle was the only area with more births than deaths
it also had, by far, the largest positive net international migration
County Durham and Sunderland also had large population increases due to this component
net international migration particularly increased the number of 16 to 34 year-olds
County Durham and Northumberland had the largest population increases due to internal migration
this component particularly increased the number of people in the 16 to 24 age group
it resulted in a decrease in the 25 to 34 population but increased the number of older people, most notably in the 55 to 64 age group
some of the population change cannot be attributed to a component and this was particularly true of some of the population decreases in County Durham and Newcastle and mostly related to 16 to 24 year-olds.
The latest year
Key aspects of the large population increase in the North East in the year to mid-2022 were that:
Net international migration particularly increased Newcastle's population
however, growth due to this component took place in each of the other six local authority areas as well
the largest population increases due to international migration were in the 16 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups
there was also an increase in the number of children due to this reason
net internal migration particularly increased the populations of County Durham and Northumberland
in particular, it increased the population aged 16 to 24, but there was also growth in the number of 35 to 64 year-olds.
Population, annual change by component, latest ten years, North East
Source: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census.
Natural change in a specific period is calculated as the number of deaths within an area subtracted from the number of births. Other changes include decreases or increases in population that cannot be assigned to a component of change. Geography: North East LEP area.
Source: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. Birth and death totals are included within the components of change data. Geography: North East LEP area
Source: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. The migration estimates in this dataset are included within the components of population change data within the release. Geography: North East LEP area
Source: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census.
Natural change in a specific period is calculated as the number of deaths within an area subtracted from the number of births. Other changes include decreases or increases in population that cannot be assigned to a component of change. Geography: North East local authority areas
Source: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census.
Natural change in a specific period is calculated as the number of deaths within an area subtracted from the number of births. Net change between age groups reflects the effects of different sizes of population in different age groups and the movement between these age groups. It sums to zero. Other changes include decreases or increases in population that cannot be assigned to a component of change. Geography: North East LEP area
Source: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses.
Natural change in a specific period is calculated as the number of deaths within an area subtracted from the number of births. Other changes include decreases or increases in population that cannot be assigned to a component of change. Geography: North East local authority areas
Source: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published 23 Nov 2023 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses.
Natural change in a specific period is calculated as the number of deaths within an area subtracted from the number of births. Net change between age groups reflects the effects of different sizes of population in different age groups and the movement between these age groups. It sums to zero. Other changes include decreases or increases in population that cannot be assigned to a component of change. Geography: North East LEP area
The mid-year population estimates are produced by taking the previous year's estimates, ageing them by a year and applying estimates of the numbers of births and deaths and of net change due to migration
there are further minor adjustments to take account of changes in "special" populations such as people in the armed forces and prisons
currently, this process restarts each ten years when an accurate estimate of the mid-year population can be made based on responses to the census taken earlier in the year
often, the census data highlights inaccuracies in annual population estimates for an area that have been produced during the previous decade
in particular, annual migration flows have proved difficult to estimate in recent years and the ONS are developing new methods and sources, particularly for international migration
where inaccuracies are identified, revised mid-year population estimates are produced for each year of the pre-census decade
estimates for the immediate pre-census year usually have the largest revisions.
North East revisions (2012 to 2020)
Mid-year population estimates for the North East in the years 2012 to 2020 have been revised so that they are consistent with the results of the 2021 census:
The total population in each of these years has been revised downwards
average North East population growth over that period had previously been estimated at about 7,800 per year
the revised data estimates it at about 3,300 per year
the estimated mid-2020 population of the North East was 40,600 lower than pre-Census data had suggested.
Age and local area revisions
Looking at the differences between previously published North East mid-2020 estimates and the latest revisions:
much of the difference was due to over-estimates of the number of people aged 19 to 31
there were also some small under-estimates, particularly of the population in their forties
the over-estimates were largest for 25 to 34 year olds in Newcastle, County Durham and Sunderland
the under-estimates were largest for 35 to 54 year olds in Newcastle.
Population, time series, latest and pre-Census estimates, North East
Sources: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published Nov 2023, mid-2020 estimates published Jun 2021 Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. The Jun 2021 release has been superseded by the latest release but is used here to highlight the impact of revisions.
Sources: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published Nov 2023, mid-2020 estimates published Jun 2021. Analysis by North East LEP. Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. The Jun 2021 release has been superseded by the latest release but is used here to highlight the impact of revisions.
Sources: Population estimates for England and Wales (ONS), mid-2022 estimates published Nov 2023, mid-2020 estimates published Jun 2021. Analysis by North East LEP
Data information: The annual mid-year population estimates statistics roll forward the population statistics produced from decennial Censuses. The Nov 2023 release included revised estimates for each year from mid-2012 to mid-2020 that are consistent with the population recorded in the 2021 census. The Jun 2021 release has been superseded by the latest release but is used here to highlight the impact of revisions.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has produced the chart below that allows users to compare the percentage change in population between mid-2021 and mid-2022 for all local authority areas in England and Wales.
About the data
The estimated resident population of an area includes all those people who usually live there, regardless of nationality.
Arriving international migrants are included in the usually resident population if they remain in the UK for at least a year. Emigrants are excluded if they remain outside the UK for at least a year. This is consistent with the United Nations definition of a long-term migrant.
Armed forces stationed outside of the UK are excluded. Students are taken to be usually resident at their term time address.