North East regional labour market statistics

The latest regional labour market statistics

On Tuesday 14 May 2024, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) released the latest regional labour market data, most of which covered the first quarter of 2024 (Jan-Mar). 

The regional labour market release includes data based on responses to the ONS Labour Force Survey (LFS). However, falling response rates mean that statistics from this source have become increasingly volatile and are not currently considered as National Statistics. They are, instead, designated as “official statistics in development”. This is usually a stage that new statistics go through before becoming “official statistics” but, in this case, it reflects changes to an existing dataset that may still be ongoing. 

There are nine English regions within the geography used for this release, with the North East region combining the North East and Tees Valley combined authority areas.

Key points from the data

In the Jan-Mar 2024 three-month period, the North East region was estimated to have had:

• The lowest working age employment rate among the nine English regions (69.1%, England 74.9%)
• the median unemployment rate (4.4% of economically active adults, the same as England) 
• the highest working age economic inactivity rate (27.6%, England 21.6%).

Compared to a year earlier (Jan-Mar 2023):

• Employment in the North East region was estimated to have fallen by 47,700
• the working age (16 to 64) employment rate was estimated to have fallen by 3.5 percentage points (pp)
• this was the largest pp decrease among the nine English regions. England’s rate decreased by 0.8 pp over the year
• North East regional unemployment was also estimated to have decreased (by 5,200), with the rate decreasing by 0.2 pp
• this was the smallest regional pp decrease among the five English regions where the rate had fallen. It had increased in four regions and the England rate was 0.3 pp higher
• decreases in employment and unemployment fed into an increase of 66,300 in working age economic inactivity in the region. The rate increased by 3.9 pp
• this was the largest pp increase among the English regions. England’s rate increased by 0.6 pp over the year.

Compared to the previous quarter (Oct-Dec 2023):

The latest ONS release states that estimates of quarterly change should be treated with additional caution. With this caveat:

• Employment was estimated to have fallen by 25,300 in the North East region in the latest quarter, with the working age rate decreasing by 2.5 pp
• the decrease in employment was accompanied by a small increase in unemployment (by 100) and a much larger increase of 38,200 in working age economic inactivity. 

Female and male employment

• The North East region’s latest female working age employment rate (67.7%) and male equivalent (70.5%) were both the lowest among the nine English regions
• the gap between the North East regional and England rates was larger for males (7.5 pp) than for females (4.3 pp)
• compared to a year earlier, female employment in the region was 20,400 lower, with male employment 27,300 lower.
   

Employee data 

Falling response rates for the survey that feeds into the headline regional employment data have led the ONS to publish additional statistics based on administrative data. These are sourced using information about people who are employed in at least one job that is paid through Pay As You Earn (PAYE).

This source does not provide information about self-employed workers or those outside of the PAYE system. However, it does give additional evidence about recent changes in the labour market and has the added advantage that it provides timely data for smaller geographies such as combined authority areas. It also includes employee pay data.

Early, seasonally adjusted, estimates for April 2024 indicate that: 

• The number of PAYE employees in the North East region was almost 6,700 higher than in April 2023, with the total in the North East combined authority area being 4,500 higher
• more recently, however, the number of such employees has been decreasing in the North East. The latest regional total was 900 lower than three months earlier and 1,700 lower than in the previous month.
• the number of PAYE employees in the North East combined authority area was also 900 lower than three months earlier and was 1,300 lower than in March
• median monthly payroll pay in the North East region increased by about 7.7% compared with a year earlier, a higher percentage increase than nationally (+6.9%)
• these percentage pay increases were higher than the latest Consumer Prices Index (CPI) annual rate of inflation (3.2% in March 2024)
• North East regional median employee pay was about 94% of the UK equivalent. 

Why we use regional labour market data

Where possible, the North East Evidence Hub focuses on statistics at LEP or local authority level to monitor trends in the North East economy. The labour market data section of the Hub provides comprehensive links to information at that level.

Local labour market statistics are usually released every three months and are mainly based on surveys over a 12-month period. The monthly regional labour market release provides a more timely snapshot of headline trends for an area that includes both the North East and Tees Valley combined authority areas, although the detail is more limited.

The ONS publish the regional labour market bulletins on their website. Each month they also publish a national UK labour market overview.